August 2019 Arizona Economic Outlook

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.


Daniel Sanabria

City of Phoenix, AZ at night with the moon above the city lights.

The Arizona economy grew at a solid pace in the first half of 2019.

Arizona Maintains Momentum in Early 2019

The Arizona economy grew at a solid pace in the first half of 2019. Real gross domestic product for the state is expected to post two consecutive quarters of near 4 percent growth. Arizona added 37,000 jobs so far in 2019, which is about the same amount of jobs created in the first six months of 2018. The state's tourism industry is seeing more positive momentum as national parks visits and airport passenger traffic improved heading into early summer. Construction has been a key sector for the Arizona economy this year. ARMLS reported that home sales in the Phoenix metropolitan area were up 2.6 percent year-over-year in June. The supply of homes for sale was at a very low 2.1 months' worth. Low housing inventories helped to bolster area home prices. Phoenix home prices were up 5.7 percent year-over-year in May, according to Core Logic Case-Shiller. Low inventories and solid home price appreciation are a positive indicator for construction activity. We expect Arizona to add roughly 33,500 new single-family units this year, slightly above the pace seen in 2018. The recent escalation of the U.S./China trade war amplifies downside economic risk for the state. Arizona businesses with global supply chains and global customers are facing heightened uncertainty. Also, an overall U.S. economic slowdown due to a decline in business and consumer confidence would likely spill over into Arizona. The manufacture of durable goods in Arizona accounts for around 8 percent of state GDP. Growth in Arizona's durable goods manufacturing industries moderated from 10 percent year-over-year growth in 2018Q1 to 2.6 percent in 2019Q1.

For a PDF version of this publication, click here: August 2019 Arizona Economic Outlook.

The articles and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change, and are not intended to provide specific investment, legal, tax or other advice or recommendations. The information contained herein reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team. We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on this information. We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation. Although the information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.

August 7, 2019
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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