Comerica Bank's Florida Economic Activity Index increased in September to a level of 106.7. September's index reading was 8.3 percent above the index cyclical low of 98.5. The index averaged 115.9 in 2019, 1.0 point above the average for all of 2018. August's index reading was revised to 104.9.
Our Florida Economic Activity Index improved in September, now rising for the third consecutive month. Gains were widespread in September. Nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, state total trade, hotel occupancy, state sales tax revenues and total enplanements were all positive. We expect the Florida Index to improve again in October and November, but at a slower rate. This is still consistent with our expectation of an ongoing expansion of Florida's economy through year-end. Housing activity continued to drive the state's recovery. According to FloridaRealtors, single-family home sales accelerated this fall and are now up 2.8 percent year-to-date in October. Low mortgage rates will support housing activity into 2021. However, travel, hospitality and retail will continue to face major headwinds through the fall and winter as COVID-19 cases surge around the U.S. Travel into the state remained low through September. Total enplanements were down 59 percent at Miami International and down 57 percent at Orlando International year-to-date in September. The combination of high unemployment and uncertainty about unemployment benefits is also an issue for Florida. Florida allows only 12 weeks of regular jobless benefits. Federal emergency benefits are set to expire at the end of December. The loss of income for unemployed workers is a downside risk for the state.
